WP7 – Defining the drivers of interannual to decadal variability including analysis of extreme and tipping points

We will determine the large-scale physical and human social drivers that cause the key metrics from WP 2.1 to vary on interannual and decadal time scales, and assess their relative importance. We will analyse new and existing observations and model simulations to generate new knowledge about drivers across the TRIATLAS region, focusing on the case study regions. Physical drivers considered will include regional to large-scale ocean circulation, and large-scale climate modes (e.g., ENSO, Atlantic Niño and Atlantic Meridional Mode). We will include an additional focused study of the extreme events associated with marine heatwaves. The complex connections between drivers and impacts in the human social dimensions will be brought to the fore and analysed using time series of social indicators. We will study historic tipping points in ecosystem state and evaluate the impact of alternative fishing strategies on these regime shifts.

Work package leader: Belen Rodriguez Fonseca, UCM

Work package co-leader: Astrid Jarre, UCT